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Beach Blog
Like the song says, "What it is ain't exactly clear." Getting mixed messages from every direction: roller coaster stock market, marches on Wall Street, historically low interest rates (in the 3's!!!), and best of all people actually paying cash for houses and land lately. The last month has been very busy with buyer activity in this area. Of course, October usually is busy with buyer activity at the beach. But October 2010 was not. So, it's very heartening to see some hints of return to normalcy around here.
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Having a blog is like having a baby or a pet. It's a duty and responsibility, once you start, which you cannot neglect. I've been a lousy and neglectful blogger and don't expect to do much better anytime soon, I have to admit!
For today, though, just couldn't turn in for the night without saying a few words about the little rays of sunshine peeking through over the last couple of weeks. This Summer seemed to heat up fairly well, considering. In fact, until about a month ago, I was having a better year in sales than any in the last 5 years. Then the country's budget fiasco put the fear into people and buyers seemed to freeze in their tracks, wondering what happens next. The stock market roller coaster at first fueled more fear and consequent paralysis. I checked the website hits, but the hits didn't go down so I knew people are still thinking of buying...wanting to buy...but afraid to move.
Then little by little over the last couple of weeks, I've been seeing people put one foot in front of the other and actually put cash on the table to buy property. The latest phenomenon is people trying to diversify their assets, taking cash from their investments and looking for bargains in real estate where they can have some hope of seeing their money grow over the next few years.
This is what the economy needs. As people break free from the frozen restraints of their fear, and take decisive action, the logjam starts to loosen as others feel compelled to do the same. The demand is out there, but "pent up" is an understatement for describing it. Let's open the floodgates and let it flow.
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Amazing how many cash buyers are rattling around lately. Money coming out of stocks and into real estate. Sell high and buy low, as they say. Someone is paying attention! Interesting that the biggest increase I have personally noted lately is the increased interest in the higher priced homes.
The last 3 offers I have written on affordable homes have each met with competing offers. That has to be a good sign. Well, it's a good sign for sellers, anyway. Buyers come around assuming they can make low offers and have some hope of at least getting a counter offer, but instead they are surprised when someone else offers at the same time and buys it out from under them. REO responses these days are just as likely to be a Multiple Offer Addendum as a flat out rejection.
According to MLS stats, the average list price to selling price today, as compared to 6 months ago, has gone up from 92% to 96%! So, if you offer more than 10% below the list price, don't be surprised if you either get a rejection, or lose the house to a competing buyer.
These are all signals, folks. If my crystal ball is working, we have survived the worst, and are positioning to start back up again.
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I'ts been real. Seriously. Something has clicked and the higher priced market segment and the blip (micro-blip might be a better way to name it) continues to hold air. Inquiries, showings, offers, even sales have increased making the first quarter of 2011 encouraging indeed. Still, the increase is noticeable, but not enough to make me shout from the rooftops. I have been whispering from the rooftops, though, that maybe this is a good time to put the higher priced homes on the market. There aren't a lot of buyers, but all you need is one.
Mid-range is getting a little more activity, surprisingly so considering it's been winter until several days ago. If we could just get some convincing sunshine, we'd be sitting pretty.
Low end properties, foreclosures, distress sales - still cooking. Buyers are taking advantage of this great opportunity.
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I don't remember being as happy about a new year for a long time. This year is sure to be a better year than 2010. While my sales volume was satisfactory for the year, it was one of the toughest years ever in my 35 year career because I had so many listings that just didn't sell. The distress sales sold for fire sale prices, and the folks who were willing and able to compete with fire sale prices were able to sell. However, the people who needed to sell but had mortgage balances too high to let them drop their prices just languished on the market hoping for a miracle. Some people just don't want to go the short sale route, and who can blame them?
Every day, the financial news reports seem to contradict themselves. One minute there is encouraging news and you turn the channel and hear a new "double dip recession" forecast. Who really knows?
In my microcosmic environment, I have been experiencing signs that have me feeling very optimistic about this year. Here are some of those signs:
1. Practically no foreclosures in my immediate area, as compared to 34 in Oceanside alone just 18 months ago.
2. When foreclosures do pop up, they seem to sell immediately and often have competing offers.
3. A few buyers have been looking at lots lately. That sector has been totally dead for a couple of years.
4. Credit Unions are making reasonable loans!
5. Construction loans and lot loans are again available.
6. Appraisers have been more reasonable - fewer low appraisals lately.
7. Although the high end homes have been mostly ignored the last couple of years, I've had 3 million dollar buyer prospects in the last 30 days.
8. Two lenders I called recently had messages on their voicemail greetings that basically said they are swamped with loan applications, so it may take time for them to return calls!
Surely these indicators signal a better market environment and we will have a much better year this year.
So...Happy New Year!
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___First I have to say that it's apparent a blog is a real commitment. Once you start it, if you don't keep it up, it nags you!
___Also, a little off topic, here's a word to the wise. Buyers who are looking for property in this amazing time seem to think that nothing is selling and that the home they are interested in will be there when they are ready to make an offer. When the Realtor tells the buyer she is aware of a possible competing offer, most often the Buyer is skeptical and assumes this is "sales talk." However, it is easy to believe what is true about human beings. We have the "herd mentality." If a home has languished on the market for 2 years, it's so easy to assume there's no hurry to make your offer. But here is what happens. There may be 2 or 3 other parties out there who like that house, too, and have been doing exactly what you are doing: hesitating just in case there's a better buy out there, or hesitating because you wonder what's wrong with this house if no one else has bought it in two long years. As soon as your Realtor starts asking "buyer signal" questions of the listing broker, the listing broker is likely to let the other prospective buyers know there may be an offer coming in. As soon as the other buyers think someone else is interested in this house, then the herd mentality kicks in. If they think no one else wants it, then they are afraid to buy it. But, if they know someone else is interested, that fear dissipates and they are ready to buy. BELIEVE IT. Even in this market, we do have multiple offers very frequently.
___So, back to the topic: This Market.
___What's selling at the beach right now? Cheap stuff. In the entire Tillamook County MLS today, there are 26 pending sales. Out of those 26, there are only 4 were listed for over 300,000 (the highest at 549K). Over half the pending sales are homes priced under 200,000.
___What does this tell you? It says that if you can afford a home priced over 300,000 this is a historical opportunity for YOU. Sellers of homes priced over 300,000 are experiencing little or no buyer activity right now,at least in this area. It's truly a buyer's market in this price range...more so for homes priced over 500,000. With interest rates in the 4's and a market starving for buyers, YOU ARE THE KING or QUEEN of the MOUNTAIN. Contact me today and I'll roll out the red carpet and find you a dream home. You may even wear a crown and sit in the back seat like royalty.
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Hard to say where we are or what's happening in the marketplace right now. There seems to be nothing consistent except the relative lack of activity in the high end price ranges. Still, there is activity, and it seems that when one buyer becomes interested in a particular property, then 2 or 3 other buyers suddenly become interested in the same property. Yet so many listings languish on the market with very little attention.
Most of the foreclosures or short sales that pop up now and then are sold very quickly. That's surely a good sign.
Interest rates are fabulously low. One sale closing next week ended up with a rate in the low 4 percent range.
Great buys available now and we may never see such fabulous opportunities again in our lifetimes. Carpe diem!
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Well, think again! How about this great oceanfront condo for only 199,000 which is uniquely set up to allow you to use it and rent it at the same time. Yes, you really can have your cake and eat it, too! It consists of one bedroom with full bath attached, with a separate entrance. The second full bath is off the hallway which has a locking door this side of the master bedroom suite. The rules allow you to rent out the oceanfront efficiency suite, and still keep your master suite to yourself. Imagine, if you could rent it out for 100 nights a year at $100 per night, that would about pay your mortgage at this price. You'd almost have a free beach home!
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Technology is great, but WOW it is time consuming. Logged onto Facebook today for the first time in a long time. Mothers Day, my son and webmaster spent the day with me. I've always wished I had a techno-wizard riding around on my shoulder all day, and that day I had my wish come true. Thanks, Tony! So, he logged me onto my Facebook page and acknowledged a year's worth of friend requests all at once. Whew!
Now, as I take a breather to update my website blog, I'm embarrassed (again) that it's been so long since the last posting. But that's actually the good news about this posting. It's been busy here on the Oregon Coast. Beach property has been selling all through the Winter and Spring. Okay, so lots and land has been largely ignored, as have most of the high end homes. Most everything over 500,000 has been really stagnant for the last year and a half. However, even that has improved over the last couple of months, it gives me great pleasure to report.
Interestingly, people assume the recent activity has been driven by the tax credit which expired April 30th. Not in my experience. Very few of my sales were triggered by that program, and all but one of my sales, where the buyer qualified for the credit, involved people who were pleasantly surprised that they get a tax credit. In other words, they were looking for a house anyway, and not because of the tax credit.
The only reoccuring themes in my recent sales of beach houses have been that buyers realize we have bottomed out and now is the time to get the best buy, and/or people who are removing their cash from the stock market and back into something REAL. That's why we call it REAL ESTATE.
Put your money into real estate. It's a rock solid investment. Okay, so sometimes it's hard to get your money back out of a rock if you need it in a hurry. I'll grant you that. But if you buy what you can afford to keep for a long time, then your real property is sure to give you a tangible asset you can rely on.
Let me help you find your home by the water in Tillamook County. I specialize in beach homes, lots and land with views of ocean, bay, lake, creek, river, or pond; also waterfront homes or just close enough to enjoy the sights and sounds of pristine waterways in the Land of Many Waters.
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The first quarter of 2010 is easily the busiest first quarter I have ever experienced. Lots of buyer activity, but mostly in the average to lower price ranges. Most active buyers are looking for bargains. Many are looking to buy in time to qualify for the 2 federal tax credits: $8,000 for buying a home if you haven't owned one in 3 years; $6,500 for "move up" homebuyers.
At the beach, however, most buyers are looking for non-owner occupied investment properties or family beach homes which they may or may not rent out on a short term rental basis. With the stock market fairly vibrant and real estate prices appealingly low, many buyers are liquidating stocks while they're high and paying cash for the new beach house.
The high end homes in this county are still sitting on the market gathering cobwebs, but there's a glimmer of hope in that segment, too. In the last 90 days there have been several sales over $400,000 in the local MLS, and I have personally experienced noticeable upswing in the number of buyer inquiries for homes listed in the $400,000 to 600,000 price range. We are moving in the right direction.
So if you're getting the Spring Fever, best spring into action and buy a beach house before this possibly fleeting opportunity has sprung.
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Equal Housing Opportunity.